Ep. 36 Tariff, Trade Wars, and United States Commodities Exports

00;00;11;11 – 00;00;12;13
Dr. Ryan Loy
Well, how you been?

00;00;12;15 – 00;00;14;13
Riley Smith
I’m making it. I’m making it yourself?

00;00;14;16 – 00;00;18;11
Dr. Ryan Loy
Oh, just about the same. It’s been a busy week. Even though it’s only Tuesday.

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Riley Smith
That’s. That’s a fact.

00;00;19;19 – 00;00;28;00
Dr. Ryan Loy
Quite a busy week. Traffic this morning. Coming in. I left my house at 650 or something. I didn’t pull up here until 815.

00;00;28;00 – 00;00;41;02
Riley Smith
It was. It was pretty busy at 610 or about 630 this morning because I left my house at like 540, 550. And, I got here at about 715. So it was pretty busy then too.

00;00;41;04 – 00;00;45;10
Dr. Ryan Loy
Yeah. And that the direction you take, you come. You go cross the river there, don’t you?

00;00;45;15 – 00;00;52;22
Riley Smith
Like I go, I come down, 167, then I take 440 and then I come around, get on 30, and then I get on 630.

00;00;52;25 – 00;00;58;16
Dr. Ryan Loy
Okay. Yeah. That one little exchange, like getting to cross the river right there. It’s always, always packed.

00;00;58;16 – 00;01;02;13
Riley Smith
That one. Oh, you’re talking about on 30.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Yeah.

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Riley Smith
Coming across there. You know, I take the 440 loop around the airport. Oh, okay. So I take the exit. Right. When you come out of Jacksonville, right before you get to North Little Rock. Okay. And then I take that four line all the way around, and then I hit, 30, and I’m only two exits away from 630, so.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Okay.

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Riley Smith
It’s a whole lot quicker. Quicker, in my opinion.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Get around.

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Riley Smith
Yeah. And then he’s trying to get me to go down. South I-30 and go to, South University at the end of it.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Oh.

00;01;36;02 – 00;01;41;28
Riley Smith
Yeah. And then come straight down from the south, campus, you learn and then come up that way. But that’s.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
The way I take.

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Riley Smith
In. Yeah, not but I. Yeah, but you’re from Vietnam.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Yeah. That’s where I live.

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Riley Smith
So it’s, it’s pretty quick for me to just jump on 440 and year round and it’s, it’s open line most of the time. So but when you get on the 30 that’s when it gets enough packed and there has been mornings when I’ve had to take the when I’ve been on for 40 and get on 40.

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Riley Smith
Okay. And then come up through and then, 30 right through your south and north little Rock.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
I’ll tell you what I-40 is usually like. It’s either really good or really bad. Like, you know, it’ll be going along pretty nicely. Nobody on the.

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Riley Smith
I’m pretty sure the states, you know, color right now is traffic orange.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Oh, yeah.

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Riley Smith
Big time. I never feel like there’s road construction everywhere. And it’s it’s from here to Cabot Cove. It’s jammed up. And then you get into Jacksonville and they’ve got roadblocks on both sides that are them. Blockers on both sides of the road all the way through most of Jacksonville anyway. You know, until you hit a four lane and yeah, it’s a mess.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Well very good. Well you ready to kick off today?

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Riley Smith
I am. Well good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Welcome to another episode of Morning Coffee Night Markets with your host Riley Smith. And today I’ve got Doctor Ryan Lloyd sitting in the studio with me here in the little Rock office. And the today and today. Excuse me. And today we are talking about a somewhat sensitive subject. We’re talking about tariffs, trade wars in the United States, commodities exports.

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Riley Smith
So Doctor Ryan, let’s kick this off. So what how do tariffs work.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Well it’s a great question Riley. And you know the reason we’re kind of covering this is I think that, you know, it’s become one of the most highly debated topics in 2025. You know. And it’s been on everybody’s mind. And you know, everybody’s talking about it. You know, what do they mean? How do they work? And and what are the things that they do.

00;03;30;17 – 00;03;50;25
Dr. Ryan Loy
And you know, what I want to cover today in the podcast is not necessarily, you know, what’s going on. Today we will cover that in the newsletter. So I’ll have a section in the newsletter that kind of covers what’s going on with the tariffs today, what they look like on agricultural commodities, especially from China. And basically the, you know, kind of the trade war overall.

00;03;50;25 – 00;04;09;19
Dr. Ryan Loy
But what I want to focus on for the podcast today is just kind of talking about exactly that, that question you asked. And you know, what exactly is a tariff and how does it work? Again, I think that this is, you know, compared to the 2018 trade war, you know, in this trade war, this might be, some, some people’s first kind of, exposure to it.

00;04;09;19 – 00;04;34;23
Dr. Ryan Loy
So what is a tariff? Well, you know, really, in short, and very simply put, a tariff is a tax a country imposes on goods imported from another country. So there’s a lot of, you know, reasons for doing, you know, for instance, excuse me, enacting a tariff. But one of the fundamental ideas is to really incentivize trade with the country that has those tariffs enacted on them on their goods.

00;04;34;25 – 00;04;54;13
Dr. Ryan Loy
You know, this idea and the reason for wanting to do this could be politically based, you know, maybe trying to force another country to renegotiate a trade deal, you know, revenue generating, you know, the government, whoever is implementing that tariff, the government collects the revenue from that tariff, exactly like a tax or to protect domestic production of that.

00;04;54;13 – 00;05;11;11
Dr. Ryan Loy
Good. So one example, and this may be a bad example, but it is just an example nonetheless. Let’s say for example, Chinese steel is cheaper. Right. But the U.S. wants to really protect their domestic, steel production. So, you know, they’re going to put a tariff on that to try to make it more expensive relative to the domestic option.

00;05;11;11 – 00;05;39;15
Dr. Ryan Loy
So there’s there’s many things, you know, but really the critical piece, you know, from the tariff is really understanding who pays a tariff and how the sectors of the economies are impacted and some of the associated side effects that may not be necessarily, the intention. So one of the things we included in this week’s newsletter is an infographic that basically just illustrates a very hypothetical tariff being implemented on an exporting country.

00;05;39;17 – 00;05;58;01
Dr. Ryan Loy
And so it’s a good way to just kind of look at it objectively and say, okay, this is what happens when a tariff is implemented and this is how it works. So this scenario in the infographic, you know, examines the impact on three primary sectors within both the importing and exporting countries the government, suppliers and firms and consumers.

00;05;58;03 – 00;06;16;18
Dr. Ryan Loy
So let’s just say, for example, in this case, to kind of go through it, consider a case in which the U.S., in this case, they’re going to be the importing country. So their importing some good. The U.S. enacts a tariff on Chinese manufactured widgets. Now widget can be whatever you want. Let’s say for this case it’s going to be just some Chinese.

00;06;16;18 – 00;06;39;21
Dr. Ryan Loy
Good. For example, right now we’ve got, you know, blanket tariffs about 20% on all Chinese imports. So that means that there’s a 20%, tariff on top of the base cost of the goods getting from China right now. But for this case, let’s just assume that there is a tariff enacted on Chinese manufactured widgets, widgets imported into the US.

00;06;39;23 – 00;07;02;29
Dr. Ryan Loy
So one objective of this tariff could be to incentivize US based importing firms to import widgets from an alternative supplier, ideally maybe domestic supplier, or from countries not currently subject to the tariff. In this scenario, though, the US government imposes the tariff and in doing so generates the revenue from that tariff. Right. And that revenue can be used for many different things.

00;07;02;29 – 00;07;42;09
Dr. Ryan Loy
And, you know, that’s kind of out of the scope of this conversation. But at the same time, the government, the US government, that importing country imposes the tariff, the Chinese government then has an option to respond by negotiating, maybe renegotiating a trade deal or imposing retaliatory tariffs, which is what we’re seeing right now. So we implemented a 20% essentially blanket, tariff on Chinese imports, and they responded by putting a range of about 10 to 15% of, of a tariff on U.S commodities being imported to China.

00;07;42;11 – 00;08;12;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
Now, that’s important because we’re talking about agricultural commodities. So soybeans, cotton, corn, cotton, soybeans, cotton, corn, you know, livestock, chicken, those sorts of things. So the Chinese government can put imposes retaliatory tariffs. And that’s what we saw, this year in this scenario as well, us importing firms. So firms that take the widgets off the boat and buy them and then, you know, wholesale them.

00;08;12;24 – 00;08;35;08
Dr. Ryan Loy
The US importing firms are now required at this point to pay the base cost of the good, what they would have paid without the tariff. Right. But in addition to the tariff, which in this case, and most often when we’re talking about tariffs with the trade here, they’re what’s known as ad valorem taxes, which is percentage based. And so the tariff is calculated as a percentage of the base cost.

00;08;35;08 – 00;09;02;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
So what they’re paying in total is that base cost plus some percent of that base cost as well. On top of that. So because of that it’s more expensive to import, right. It’s more expensive. So with it being more expensive to import, these firms, you know, may seek alternative suppliers, while Chinese exporting firms, the ones who are sending the widgets over here, will face a decline in demand and an accumulation of excess supply.

00;09;02;24 – 00;09;34;26
Dr. Ryan Loy
And so really that’s the idea here, is it’s understanding that and this is a very important sentence in thinking about this, is that when we’re implementing that tariff on a country, it can be somewhat misleading. The exporting country, in fact, does not directly bear that financial burden of the tariff. Instead, the importing country incurs the tariff and that exporting country then, loses out on on demand has an excess of supply, and those prices will fall because of that excess of supply.

00;09;34;29 – 00;09;39;09
Dr. Ryan Loy
So when we’re talking about prices, let’s talk about the consumers in each one of those countries.

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Riley Smith
Okay. Can I stop here. Of course please. So before we get to the end of this, I kind of want to go over it in some layman terms, please, but let’s give it a shot. So what you’re saying is, when a tariff is, a tariff is imposed on the importing.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Good, the importing good from the exporting country.

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Riley Smith
And the exporting country in this sense that they’re the importers, us as importers, Chinese is the exporters.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
In this.

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Riley Smith
Directly affects the firms, quote unquote manufacturer that imports that good to build their product. Correct. That’s right. So therefore they are the ones taking the hit on the tariff.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
That’s exactly right.

00;10;23;16 – 00;10;40;11
Riley Smith
Not the exporting country, not the Chinese. But now how the Chinese are affected is, is that low risk or demand, because manufacturers are therefore not going to they don’t mean like they don’t they won’t they won’t want to accumulate that much that product, they won’t.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
Have that end market. Right. So what they produce during that time, they’re going.

00;10;44;24 – 00;11;09;29
Riley Smith
To have a higher. So, because there are manufacturers over here, I don’t want to pay that tax. I don’t want to pay that tariff. Yeah. So therefore it’s going to make us limited to supply to high demand. However, it indirectly affects the consumer because the consumer therefore has to pay for that higher price product because it’s being it’s it costs more to make that product now because they are being hit with the with the tariff.

00;11;09;29 – 00;11;16;26
Dr. Ryan Loy
So like I’ll, let’s go through the consumers because at this point I’ve really only talked about those importing firms. But I’m glad you kind of brought that up because.

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Riley Smith
That is I might have jumped again a little bit.

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Dr. Ryan Loy
That’s just fine. And that’s important to bring up. And I’m glad you brought that up. So it’s exactly that. So if we as the importing country are putting that tariff on the exporting country, what we’re really doing is putting a tariff on their goods, not necessarily that country, because exactly like you said, that exporting country isn’t writing us a check for that tariff amount.

00;11;37;22 – 00;12;11;29
Dr. Ryan Loy
It’s the importers domestically that are doing it right. And so again, but they get hurt because they lose that demand. And then they have just sitting on supply. Right. But let’s talk about the you know those the consumers. So starting with the US consumers which again are importers in this scenario the US is the importer. That additional cost incurred by those US importers because they have to pay the tariff and the base cost is going to be ultimately passed down to, US consumers importing consumers, right, leading to a higher domestic price for the imported goods.

00;12;12;01 – 00;12;30;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
Now, again, this is and this is important to kind of stop and talk about this for a minute, because this is under the assumption that the importing good is cheaper than the domestic option. Right. And it’s also assuming that, you know, in this case, they’re going to pay that higher domestic price for the imported goods, which is true.

00;12;30;28 – 00;12;52;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
But assuming that the domestic substitute is more it’s still more expensive. Even with that tariff, they’re just going to have to pay that higher price. So a great example of this is actually, the Canadian potash issues we see right now. So again, that additional cost is going to be incurred by those US importers who are importing that potash from Canada is going to trickle right on down to the farmer.

00;12;52;24 – 00;13;11;13
Dr. Ryan Loy
But why? The real important part is, well, one reason is because now it’s more expensive because of that tariff. But the second reason is there’s no domestic substitute for potash. There’s no there’s really no other substitute for it. So if there’s no substitute them, we’re forced to pay that higher price. And so that’s kind of the situation that we’re presenting here.

00;13;11;14 – 00;13;40;09
Riley Smith
And and I’ll use a non ag example to to I guess furthermore explain your situation that you’re talking about or your scenario as far as that domestic product goes. So we’ll look at John Deere. Oh I said non I but we’ll use John Deere. So it’s an egg. It’s an egg product. They’re based out of. Their headquarters is based out of Illinois okay.

00;13;40;11 – 00;13;43;26
Riley Smith
But they’re manufacturer parts are manufacturer blah.

00;13;43;28 – 00;13;49;02
Dr. Ryan Loy
We assume China is Mexico. Mexico okay. Yeah. Well you talked about the parts. You talking about the actual tractor itself?

00;13;49;08 – 00;13;51;11
Riley Smith
I believe parts are both.

00;13;51;14 – 00;13;51;28
Dr. Ryan Loy
I didn’t know that.

00;13;52;04 – 00;14;28;22
Riley Smith
But I could be wrong. And people may, you know, not me for it, but in this example, we’re going to use it. Parts are manufactured in Mexico. We’re just going to say that for the sake of this scenario, if parts were made in the United States and they have a we have an import tariff on those parts. What you’re telling me is, is, domestically, the domestic product will still be higher than that 10% increase tariff on on the on the import.

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Riley Smith
It could.

00;14;29;02 – 00;14;36;17
Dr. Ryan Loy
Be it could be the case and most often will be the case only because mainly due to the fact that our labor costs are much higher.

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Riley Smith
Right. It’s kind of like saying that’s kind of like saying like you got Kraft mac and cheese. Yeah. And then you got the great value mac and cheese. That’s right. And then you put a 10% import tariff on the great value Mac and cheese. And it’s still cheaper than the, you know, and then the Kraft Mac. That’s kind of because that’s kind of the premium premium.

00;14;52;07 – 00;14;52;12
Riley Smith
Right.

00;14;52;16 – 00;15;01;03
Dr. Ryan Loy
And I’m and I’m just kind of breezing over there. There are some products where that may not be the case. But there are others like potash or even maybe materials and things.

00;15;01;06 – 00;15;11;09
Riley Smith
That require a lot of labor. Now that substitute or that, substitute product, that great value product that, that we always purchase because it’s cheaper, still.

00;15;11;09 – 00;15;12;18
Dr. Ryan Loy
Seems like the better option.

00;15;12;21 – 00;15;16;11
Riley Smith
It still seems like the better option. But if it gets higher and gets closer to that Kraft Mac cheese, then.

00;15;16;11 – 00;15;17;07
Dr. Ryan Loy
We may switch over.

00;15;17;08 – 00;15;24;29
Riley Smith
Well, you either may switch over or you just stop buying Kraft mac and cheese. Right. And I, for the demand of it or the supply of it then increases domestically as well.

00;15;24;29 – 00;15;49;06
Dr. Ryan Loy
And I think what’s really important to bring up there to is, is understanding that exactly what you said, but understanding too that well, in this scenario that you presented for talking about Kraft, a great value mac and cheese and maybe the reason that people do that is because there isn’t domestic capacity to actually meet that demand. Right? So I brought up steel earlier.

00;15;49;12 – 00;16;07;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
Right. That is a great example because, you know, we we have good steel here. We can produce it, but can we actually produce it enough to fill that demand? Do we have that capacity. And most often the answer is no. And so when you think about it you go, okay, well maybe domestic production will increase, you know, by some.

00;16;07;24 – 00;16;09;17
Dr. Ryan Loy
But the prices are absolutely going.

00;16;09;17 – 00;16;32;11
Riley Smith
To go up. And I think a good example of that would be look at 2020. Yeah. I mean, I’ve got family that’s in the housing market, builds houses and after 2020, you know, suppliers to build your house, got back ordered or was on a wait list for it went from weeks to months. Two years.

00;16;32;11 – 00;16;34;10
Dr. Ryan Loy
Right. Think about that supply chain. Right. Yeah.

00;16;34;13 – 00;16;42;00
Riley Smith
Now now all that all that product, all of them products that was being imported, you know, just sat there.

00;16;42;02 – 00;16;51;16
Dr. Ryan Loy
That’s right. Well, you know, and really the main thing is just understanding that maybe the fact is, is that we just had little supply because it was difficult to import. Right. And so the same, the same idea would have.

00;16;51;16 – 00;16;53;02
Riley Smith
You know, same concept, different.

00;16;53;02 – 00;16;53;12
Dr. Ryan Loy
Different.

00;16;53;12 – 00;17;03;14
Riley Smith
Situation, same concept. But now we’re still having to figure out how to domestically refill that demand. But we can’t keep up with the demand and.

00;17;03;15 – 00;17;08;09
Dr. Ryan Loy
What ends up happening when you don’t have that excess of supply and you’re just trying to keep up with demand, the prices are going to go up. Right.

00;17;08;10 – 00;17;09;14
Riley Smith
So and then yeah.

00;17;09;20 – 00;17;32;21
Dr. Ryan Loy
Either way you’re looking at that. And so one last thing to touch on here. You know we talked about how those those additional costs are going to be incurred by those US consumers in this case, which again is the importing country. But in contrast, you know, Chinese consumers, which are on the export side, they may benefit from lower prices because those those exporting firms out there have an excess of supply.

00;17;32;24 – 00;17;52;07
Dr. Ryan Loy
And so so, you know, walking through this with words, you know, may be a little bit difficult. And that’s why I wanted to provide this infographic, which a colleague of Riley. Nice. I’ve been where she put together. And it’s a great graphic. And it also provides an example demonstrating the impact of a 10% tariff on just $100 worth of imported goods.

00;17;52;10 – 00;18;09;05
Dr. Ryan Loy
It kind of walks through that, and then you can kind of take that and expand upon that and assume what it looks like on a bigger deal. So we walked through this from the case of us being an importing country and placing that tariff on China. Right. Let’s flip it on its head now. Let’s talk about it just like what’s going on right now.

00;18;09;05 – 00;18;26;23
Dr. Ryan Loy
China impose retaliatory tariffs. And what I want to point out here is that it is really just the consumers. Right. So again, if they have a tariff on our soybean that we’re trying to send to them, it’s going to force those importers to shift to other alternatives such as South America, Brazil.

00;18;26;23 – 00;18;27;09
Riley Smith
Right.

00;18;27;11 – 00;18;50;08
Dr. Ryan Loy
But what’s really important here is that, again, we’re going to be faced with excess supply here because we don’t have that downstream export market. And our, our, our prices will fall because of it, because of that excess supply. But what’s important here, when we’re talking about consumers is this idea of domestic consumption. Now, I said in this case, you know, the Chinese consumers may benefit from that lower price of those widgets because they have an excess supply.

00;18;50;11 – 00;19;14;19
Dr. Ryan Loy
However, if you think about an excess supply of soybeans in the United States, we don’t have that domestic consumption to make up for it. So that’s another way that really could hurt the ag sector. When we’re talking about retaliatory tariffs, meaning, yeah, the Chinese are paying, the Chinese importers are paying that tariff to get our goods. However, we’re now left with a ton of supply with nowhere to go for it and no domestic consumption to make up for it.

00;19;14;22 – 00;19;39;13
Dr. Ryan Loy
And so that’s really kind of in a nutshell, kind of some of the overall impacts of these tariffs that we see today, out there. So, you know, again, in the newsletter this week, I kind of I have another section that goes into a little bit of a deeper dive of what’s actually going on, right now. And I do a quick little analysis to look at, you know, what would have been the, the cost of just the tariff alone?

00;19;39;15 – 00;19;53;20
Dr. Ryan Loy
You know, overall, all our commodities exported to China last year, it looks like about 2.2 billion. But I’ll let you go ahead and let our listeners read that. And, please let me know if you have any questions. On on how that analysis was conducted.

00;19;53;21 – 00;20;21;24
Riley Smith
This was definitely a good topic to cover. I know that even even from my education or education, when we had this discussion two weeks ago, what really is a tariff? Because when we think of implementing a, tariff, you think of the other country getting being affected by it, when it’s really both countries are affected by it and directly or indirectly, I should say in indirectly affects the consumer.

00;20;21;24 – 00;20;41;07
Riley Smith
So anytime and domestically or globally. But I feel like this topic, a lot of people should go and read this. That way they can be a little bit, a little bit more knowledgeable on what a tariff is. And so that way that’ll help them understand what’s really going on outside of, outside of this office.

00;20;41;08 – 00;20;43;00
Dr. Ryan Loy
That’s right. That’s exactly right.

00;20;43;02 – 00;21;05;10
Riley Smith
But anyway, Doctor Loy, thank you so much. Thank you. Really coming on here today, for everyone listening, please stay tuned for my market report. Thanks. All right, guys, back with you. Market report May 25th Corn Current prices at $4.62 per bushel. Month agos price is at $5.12 per bushel. That’s down $0.50 a year ago. Price was at $4.39 per bushel.

00;21;05;10 – 00;21;36;10
Riley Smith
That’s up $0.23 May 25 Rice current prices at $13.28 per cwt month goes price was at $14.02 per cwt that’s down $0.74 a year goes price is at $17.70 per cwt That’s down $4.42. May 25 soybeans current price is at $10.08 per bushel. Month agos price is at $10.48 per bushel. That’s down $0.40 and a year agos price is at $12.10 per bushel.

00;21;36;10 – 00;22;05;14
Riley Smith
That’s down $2.02 a year. Excuse me. July 25 Wheat current price is at $5.80 per bushel. Month agos price is at $6.20 per bushel. That’s down $0.40 a year agos price was at $5.60 per bushel. That’s that’s up $0.20. May 25 Cotton current prices at 67 $0.66 per pound a month goes prices at $0.68 per pound.

00;22;05;14 – 00;22;29;23
Riley Smith
That’s down $0.01 a year agos prices at $0.92 per pound. That’s down $0.26. And your weekly U.S average peanuts is $502 per ton. Month goes. Price is at $506 per ton. That’s down $4 in a year. Goes price is at for $546 per ton. That’s down $44. That’s your weekly commodity futures this week. Urea this week.

00;22;29;25 – 00;23;01;05
Riley Smith
Urea this week is $539.75 per ton, ammonium nitrate at $542 per ton, ammonium sulfates at $546 per ton DAP is at $755 per ton. Triplesuperphosphate is at $641.25 per ton, potash is $441.25 per ton. AG Lime is $50 per ton, and pellet lime this week is $241.67 per ton. Diesel prices this week off road diesel is $2.61 per gallon, highway diesel is $3.28 per gallon.

00;23;01;05 – 00;23;19;12
Riley Smith
And your Mississippi River level at Memphis, Tennessee this week is current level is at 17.9ft and a year ago was at 14.79ft. I want to thank you all again for joining in on another episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets. We hope you enjoyed it. Enjoyed your morning coffee this morning as you tune into another episode. So until next week, we’ll catch y’all on the flip flop.

00;23;19;18 – 00;23;34;26
Riley Smith
Bye bye now!