Fryar Center Podcast

For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckwith sit down together to unpack what’s driving the financial stress on Arkansas farms.

They discuss the key takeaways from the “Farm Gate Economics: Surviving the Cost-Price Squeeze” meeting, including fertilizer prices that refuse to drop and record global grain supplies. The conversation also covers cost-management tips for producers heading into 2026.

Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how rainfall trends and interval selection shape profitability. They discuss five interval-selection strategies—from Near Peak Forage Months to Historical Variation—and why these two outperform profit-max and basis-risk methods across most scenarios. With the December 1 enrollment deadline approaching, the episode offers practical guidance for forage and livestock producers looking to make PRF a true safety net, not a gamble.

Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice competitiveness. They discuss how India’s lifted export ban, record global harvests, and shifting import policies in key markets like the Philippines have driven prices down nearly 30% from last year. They also examine the quality challenges facing U.S. rice in contrast to Mercosur competitors, the political motivations behind trade bans, and what opportunities remain for Arkansas producers amid high beginning stocks and tightening margins.
Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how those updates shift risk management across regions, and the modeling behind county-level payment estimates. They also unpack what the ongoing government shutdown could mean for the timing of program payments and farm operations this fall, and take a look ahead at policy tradeoffs and payment limits likely to shape the next farm bill debate.

The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts to rising farm financial stress, drawing lessons from the 1980s crisis and outlining red flag warning signs and resources available to support farm families today.

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram recap USDA’s Sept. 12 reports on this week’s episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets. USDA found more corn acres while trimming yield, and futures firmed after early field reports of disease in the western Corn Belt and late-season dryness in the east. Soybeans lean toward record crush while exports lag amid South American competition and tariffs. Long-grain rice sees a downward revision in price, and cotton stays rangebound with Brazil’s growing export share in focus.

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to talk margin insurance. They break down Margin Protection and the Margin Coverage Option, how each fits with other crop insurance plans, and the signup windows. Hunter also walks through the Margin Protection Payment Estimator tool to show how Arkansas producers can use it to check breakevens and potential payments for the 2026 crop year.

Hunter and Ryan are back with part two of our Prevented Planting (PP) series. They look at 30 years of Arkansas trends—how PP losses surged after 2011 and have topped production losses since 2019 (often outpacing premiums) in addition to which crops drive the payouts. Rice and corn lead the pack, 2019 stands out as a peak year, and preliminary 2025 FSA data points to high PP acreage led by rice, with final tallies still coming in. They close the episode with takeaways for risk management as we head into next season.

For the fourth year in a row, Mississippi River levels are dropping to severe lows during harvest. Join Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy as they discuss how these conditions are impacting barge freight rates, soybean basis, and local cash bids. They break down what it all means for grain marketing in the Midsouth as harvest approaches.

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to explore Chapter 12 bankruptcy trends across the U.S. and in Arkansas. They discuss what rising filings reveal about farm financial stress, how margins are tightening due to rising costs, and why this matters for producers and rural communities.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down USDA’s Aug. 12 forecasts. Corn is on track for record yields and production, rebuilding U.S. supplies. Soybeans pair record yield potential with fewer harvested acres, keeping new-crop supplies relatively tight. Long-grain rice sees higher beginning stocks and a modest production bump largely offset by stronger demand. Cotton acreage is reduced; even with better yields, production declines and ending stocks tighten. Grains look well supplied, while soybeans, rice, and cotton trend tighter amid lingering demand uncertainty.

Dr. Ryan Loy unpacks the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and what it means for farm borrowing costs. We also break down rising inflation pressures, the looming August 7 tariff deadline, and how trade tensions could impact input prices and export markets. Tune in for practical insights on navigating agriculture’s financial challenges in today’s uncertain economy.

In this episode, Eunchun Park and Ryan Loy explore whether USDA’s Daily Large Export Sales Reports (DLESR) influence commodity futures markets. Unlike regularly scheduled USDA reports like WASDE, DLESRs are unscheduled and announce significant export transactions—making them potentially impactful market events. Park discusses findings from intraday futures data showing how markets may react to these unexpected announcements, especially given the unique two-day lag between a sale and its public release. The episode also contrasts DLESRs with weekly export reports, which tend to have little market impact due to their predictability and delayed information. Tune in for a deeper dive into how timing and surprise affect market movements and price discovery.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy explore Prevented Planting coverage—the indemnity within Yield and Revenue Protection policies that compensate producers when extreme events, like April’s floods, prevent planting. They explain RMA’s crop-specific base coverage factors (plus an optional 5% buy-up), walk through cost breakdowns and payment calculations, and outline rules for second-crop planting and APH yield adjustments. Join us next week for part two, where we’ll examine historical PP loss trends across Arkansas.

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram unpack USDA’s July WASDE, which largely met expectations as favorable weather and robust yields continue to underpin ample supplies. Soybean acreage cuts trimmed production slightly, but stronger crush demand held stocks steady and nudged forecast prices lower; long-grain rice saw acreage-driven production cuts offset by demand revisions that lifted ending stocks; corn stocks eased on old-crop export gains and residual adjustments; and cotton output rose on expanded acreage despite a modest yield dip. Overall, heavy stocks across the board keep downward pressure on price outlooks as we look ahead to the August 12 report.

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Will Maples break down recent federal policy updates affecting U.S. agriculture. The newly passed “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) strengthens the farm safety net with major changes to PLC, ARC, and crop insurance—including higher reference prices, expanded SCO eligibility, and increased premium subsidies. They also discuss the “Skinny” Farm Bill’s potential follow-up measures and USDA’s rollout of SDRP disaster payments for producers impacted by 2023–24 natural disasters.

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles recap one of the quietest June 30th USDA reports in recent memory. With little market reaction, they dig into what the numbers mean for corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice heading into the July WASDE. Corn and soybean acres came in slightly under expectations, while cotton saw a surprise jump and rice acres declined more than forecast. The team breaks down how these shifts may influence production, stocks, and pricing in the months ahead—and why weather will play a critical role in shaping markets through mid-summer.

In this episode, Ryan Loy and Scott Stiles break down the rise in Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies and why Arkansas now accounts for over a quarter of filings in the 8th Circuit. They explore what this trend reveals about farm financial stress, how rising input costs and stubbornly low margins are squeezing operations, and why the disparity between prices received and prices paid continues to threaten farm solvency. From national policy shifts to local realities, tune in to understand the economic warning signs facing family farms across the South.

Prices are down, breakevens are up — and Arkansas producers are stuck in the middle. In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy walk through the latest crop market trends and how the updated Arkansas Profit/Loss Tool can help producers make sense of where they stand. With the June WASDE confirming price pressure for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans, the duo explores how to use the tool to evaluate your own breakeven points, marketing windows, and risk. Whether you own, rent, or crop share, this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets gives you the data and decision support to take control of your 2025 bottom line.

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Dr. Hunter Biram unpack the June WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report and its big surprises for U.S. rice and cotton production. The duo also dives into the latest Senate proposal on farm safety net reform, including a 15% increase to PLC reference prices, expanded ARC-CO guarantees, higher crop insurance subsidies, and extended benefits for beginning farmers. Grab your coffee for a data-packed discussion on shifting ag markets and evolving safety net policy.

Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy sit down with Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat to discuss the outlook for U.S. long-grain rice in the 2025/26 marketing year. They cover the latest global supply and demand dynamics, including record global rice production and rising use in key markets. The discussion highlights USDA’s projection for lower U.S. rice exports and competition from South American suppliers, as well as trends in rice prices and trade policy developments. Grab your coffee and join us for an in-depth update on the global rice market and what it means for U.S. producers.

Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Hunter is joined by Walker Davis, a graduate student at the University of Arkansas, for an insightful discussion on the complexities of Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance policy selection. Together, they dive into Walker’s ongoing research titled “Analyzing the Upside and Downside Risk in PRF Policy Selection: Timing Mismatch.”

Tune in as they break down how timing mismatches between rainfall indices and forage production can significantly impact risk exposure and policy effectiveness. Whether you’re a producer, policymaker, or student of agricultural economics, this conversation offers valuable perspectives on navigating PRF decisions in a changing climate and market landscape.

Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

Pour yourself a fresh cup and join Riley, Hunter, and Ryan at the table for this special episode of Morning Coffee and AG Markets. Today, the trio dives into the surprising 22% increase in Arkansas’ net farm income — a jump largely driven by federal economic support and weather-related disaster assistance. They unpack what’s behind the numbers, how one-time payments are masking deeper volatility in the ag sector, and what this means for producers heading into the next crop year. With their signature blend of insight, straight talk, and a touch of humor, the crew brings clarity to the policies and pressures shaping rural economies today. From the sectors that saw the biggest gains to the long-term sustainability of this income spike, this episode delivers timely analysis on what matters most to ag producers. Your morning coffee never tasted so informative.

Dr. Hunter Biram sits down with Scott Stiles, Extension Program Associate in Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, to discuss key takeaways from the May 2025 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The duo notes that the May USDA WASDE report provides the first look at prices for the 2025/2026 crop year and that continued downward pressure on prices might trigger farm programs for some crops.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Dr. Hunter Biram visits with Dr. Ryan Loy about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6-7, 2025 and implications for short and long-term interest rates. Dr. Loy also discusses the differences in breakeven yields and prices for corn, soybean, and rice farmers under full ownership of agricultural land, cash rent, and a 75-25 crop share rental agreement.