Fryar Center Podcast

In this episode, Ryan Loy and Scott Stiles break down the rise in Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies and why Arkansas now accounts for over a quarter of filings in the 8th Circuit. They explore what this trend reveals about farm financial stress, how rising input costs and stubbornly low margins are squeezing operations, and why the disparity between prices received and prices paid continues to threaten farm solvency. From national policy shifts to local realities, tune in to understand the economic warning signs facing family farms across the South.

Prices are down, breakevens are up — and Arkansas producers are stuck in the middle. In this episode, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy walk through the latest crop market trends and how the updated Arkansas Profit/Loss Tool can help producers make sense of where they stand. With the June WASDE confirming price pressure for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans, the duo explores how to use the tool to evaluate your own breakeven points, marketing windows, and risk. Whether you own, rent, or crop share, this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets gives you the data and decision support to take control of your 2025 bottom line.

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Dr. Hunter Biram unpack the June WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report and its big surprises for U.S. rice and cotton production. The duo also dives into the latest Senate proposal on farm safety net reform, including a 15% increase to PLC reference prices, expanded ARC-CO guarantees, higher crop insurance subsidies, and extended benefits for beginning farmers. Grab your coffee for a data-packed discussion on shifting ag markets and evolving safety net policy.

Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy sit down with Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat to discuss the outlook for U.S. long-grain rice in the 2025/26 marketing year. They cover the latest global supply and demand dynamics, including record global rice production and rising use in key markets. The discussion highlights USDA’s projection for lower U.S. rice exports and competition from South American suppliers, as well as trends in rice prices and trade policy developments. Grab your coffee and join us for an in-depth update on the global rice market and what it means for U.S. producers.

Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Hunter is joined by Walker Davis, a graduate student at the University of Arkansas, for an insightful discussion on the complexities of Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance policy selection. Together, they dive into Walker’s ongoing research titled “Analyzing the Upside and Downside Risk in PRF Policy Selection: Timing Mismatch.”

Tune in as they break down how timing mismatches between rainfall indices and forage production can significantly impact risk exposure and policy effectiveness. Whether you’re a producer, policymaker, or student of agricultural economics, this conversation offers valuable perspectives on navigating PRF decisions in a changing climate and market landscape.

Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

Pour yourself a fresh cup and join Riley, Hunter, and Ryan at the table for this special episode of Morning Coffee and AG Markets. Today, the trio dives into the surprising 22% increase in Arkansas’ net farm income — a jump largely driven by federal economic support and weather-related disaster assistance. They unpack what’s behind the numbers, how one-time payments are masking deeper volatility in the ag sector, and what this means for producers heading into the next crop year. With their signature blend of insight, straight talk, and a touch of humor, the crew brings clarity to the policies and pressures shaping rural economies today. From the sectors that saw the biggest gains to the long-term sustainability of this income spike, this episode delivers timely analysis on what matters most to ag producers. Your morning coffee never tasted so informative.

Dr. Hunter Biram sits down with Scott Stiles, Extension Program Associate in Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, to discuss key takeaways from the May 2025 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The duo notes that the May USDA WASDE report provides the first look at prices for the 2025/2026 crop year and that continued downward pressure on prices might trigger farm programs for some crops.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Dr. Hunter Biram visits with Dr. Ryan Loy about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6-7, 2025 and implications for short and long-term interest rates. Dr. Loy also discusses the differences in breakeven yields and prices for corn, soybean, and rice farmers under full ownership of agricultural land, cash rent, and a 75-25 crop share rental agreement.

Join Riley for a fresh brew of ag insights on this weeks episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets. As he’s joined by Dr. Hunter Biram and special guest Dr. Andrew McKenzie to unpack the critical intersection of forward contracting and crop insurance in today’s volatile ag markets. Drawing from recent findings, the discussion explores how combining forward contracts with Revenue Protection (RP) crop insurance can stabilize farm revenue, even when yield shortfalls trigger non-delivery penalties. Learn how strategic risk layering helps producers confidently market their grain while safeguarding against both market and production risks.

In today’s episode of Morning Coffee and AG Markets, Riley covers the latest on Arkansas’ row crop planting progress after heavy early April rains. The USDA report shows planting is slightly behind last year, but recent dry weather helped farmers regain ground. Riley also breaks down fertilizer market trends, with notable price jumps in urea, UAN, DAP, and potash, and explains the difference between wholesale and retail price movements. Plus, a look at crude oil prices near four-year lows and what cheaper fuel could mean for planting season.

This morning on Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley Smith is joined by Dr. Hunter Biram, Extension Agricultural Economist at the University of Arkansas, to discuss the preliminary findings of a new report estimating nearly $79 million in crop-related damages from the historic April 2025 flooding across 32 Arkansas counties.

This morning, we’re shining a light on the Southern Risk Management Education Center (SRMEC), led by Dr. Ron Rainey at the University of Arkansas. SRMEC is helping farmers across the Southeast tackle the everyday uncertainties in ag—from weather to markets—through risk education, crop insurance navigation, and financial planning tools. Whether you’re just starting out or have decades in the field, SRMEC’s programs, including the Crop Insurance Navigator, are designed to help producers make informed, financially sound decisions for a more secure future.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley and Scott dive deep into the USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report and its price implications for corn and soybeans. They break down the anticipated 95.3 million acres of corn—4.7 million more than last year—marking the highest U.S. corn acreage since 2013. This surge, however, puts downward pressure on corn prices, especially with a potential record crop in 2025. Meanwhile, soybean acreage is set to decline to its lowest level in five years, potentially tightening supplies and driving prices higher. Tune in as they analyze these trends and explore what they mean for farmers and the broader market.

Join Riley Smith on Morning Coffee and Ag Markets as he brings in Dr. Hunter Biram, Assistant Professor and Extension Agricultural Economist at the University of Arkansas, to discuss the launch of the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) sign-up. Dr. Biram provides key insights into the program, which offers financial relief to farmers impacted by higher input costs and falling commodity prices. With up to $10 billion in direct payments available, farmers can apply online or at their local USDA Farm Service Agency office by the August 15, 2025 deadline. Don’t miss this important update on how Arkansas farmers can receive nearly $300 million in aid through ECAP!

Join Riley Smith and Dr. Ryan Loy on this episode of Morning Coffee and AG Markets as they break down the latest on tariffs and the trade war’s impact on U.S. agriculture. With the U.S. administration focusing on tariffs to address national security, economic imbalances, and promote domestic manufacturing, Riley and Dr. Loy explore how these policies are affecting markets, especially agricultural commodities like soybeans and potash. They dive into the shifting trade dynamics, particularly with China, and how U.S. farmers, especially in Arkansas, are navigating the uncertainty. Tune in for expert insights on how tariffs are shaping the future of U.S. agriculture and what it means for farm profitability.

Join Riley Smith for this morning’s Morning Coffee and Ag Markets as he is joined by Mr. Scott Stiles as they discuss the March 2025 USDA WASDE report, released on March 11th. This month’s update saw few changes, with no adjustments to U.S. corn, soybean, or cotton stocks. Soybean prices were lowered to $9.95 per bushel, the lowest since 2019, while corn prices remained at $4.35 per bushel. Long-grain rice imports reached a record high, pushing stocks to 35.3 million cwt, while medium-grain stocks were reduced due to higher exports. Riley and Scott also cover the impact of U.S. tariffs and global trade on the agricultural market.

On this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley is joined by Hunter, Ryan, and Scott Stiles for a polished roundtable discussion on the latest Ag Outlook Forum hosted by the USDA on February 27-28, 2025. The forum brought together agricultural economists and professionals from the government, academia, and private sector, providing valuable insights into national planted acreage projections and market trends.

On this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Riley is joined by Dr. Ryan Loy to explore the growing influence of the BRICS+ coalition on global trade. The BRICS+ nations, now producing a substantial share of the world’s key commodities, are pushing to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar, focusing on “de-dollarization.” Riley and Dr. Loy will discuss how this shift could reshape global markets, the challenges BRICS+ faces in uniting diverse economies, and what the future holds for the U.S. dollar’s role in international trade. Tune in for insights into these critical developments!

Today, Riley sits down with Dr. Hunter Biram, to discuss the projected economic assistance for Arkansas crops under the American Relief Act. With $10 billion in relief funds for U.S. crop producers, Arkansas farmers are set to receive a share, with payments based on economic losses per acre. Dr. Biram breaks down the expected payments for key crops like rice, soybeans, and cotton, and how the assistance is helping farmers cover operating costs. Tune in for an insightful look at how these relief funds will impact Arkansas agriculture in 2025.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley and Ryan sit down to discuss a key tool for farmers and ranchers: leveraging enterprise budgets to calculate breakeven points. They break down how using Extension Crop Enterprise Budgets for individual farm enterprises can help producers better understand their cost structure and set realistic price goals. By calculating breakeven points, they can make informed decisions on pricing, marketing, and production strategies.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley is joined by Dr. Hunter Biram in the studio, as they dive deep into the usefulness of crop insurance. Dr. Biram provides valuable insights into the complexities of crop insurance and shares an in-depth breakdown of how producers can make informed decisions for the upcoming 2025 season.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley Smith sits down with Dr. Nalley, the newly appointed head of the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas. Dr. Nalley shares his journey from assistant professor to department head and discusses his dedication to bridging research, extension, and teaching to support Arkansas producers.

In the latest episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Riley and Ryan dive into the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts and how these monetary policy shifts affect agriculture. With fewer cuts expected in 2025, they discuss the potential pressure on farmers’ margins and what that means for on-farm profitability.

On this edition of Morning Coffee and AG Markets, Riley is joined by Scott Stile to dive into the January WASDE Report, which revealed significant changes to U.S. crop projections. The USDA’s unexpected reductions in U.S. corn and soybean production have shifted the balance sheets, making the corn market “tighter” than last year and bringing the soybean outlook in line with 2023.

In the first episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets for 2025, Riley, Hunter, and Ryan sit down to dive deep into the Arkansas Crop Profit/Loss Calculator, a web-based tool designed to help producers make informed crop decisions. The trio explores how this tool enables farmers to assess potential profits and losses by inputting county, crop type, irrigation practices, and rental agreements.