Ep. 47 Global Market Prospects for U.S. Long-grain Rice for the Upcoming Market Year

00;00;12;29 – 00;00;20;00
Dr. Ryan Loy
All right. Well, Alvaro, again, thank you so much for joining us today. I know you’ve been busy. You’ve been in Madagascar, correct?

00;00;20;02 – 00;00;33;07
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
I have been in Madagascar for almost two weeks. I have three master students touring rice production, and, trying to set up a research project there. So very, very interesting experience.

00;00;33;09 – 00;00;38;21
Dr. Ryan Loy
That’s very good. What kind of research project are you interested in setting up over there?

00;00;38;24 – 00;01;06;03
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Well, I mean, Madagascar, they rely heavily on rice. Actually, 60% of the caloric intake comes from rice. So if rice fails, pretty much people all go starving. And also on top of that, it’s one of the poorest countries in the world, so they depend heavily on rice. But their production technology is really old and obsolete.

00;01;06;05 – 00;01;29;05
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
It’s the best that they can do. But, so we are trying to look at ways to, maybe help them do better and primarily, it’s really doing some basic analysis to diagnose what, what are the key factors driving low productivity. But again, one thing is to think, theoretically, from my desk in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

00;01;29;05 – 00;01;48;26
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Another thing is go on scene. And again, I have been in many places looking at rice production. But, I have never seen that level of, low level of technology and knowledge. So very, very challenging, but also very encouraging to, to do a study like that.

00;01;48;29 – 00;01;52;28
Dr. Ryan Loy
Good deal. Sounds like you have your work cut out for you, but it sounds like it was a rewarding and good trip.

00;01;53;01 – 00;02;01;22
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Yes, it was great. Great country to visit. Completely safe. Beautiful people in general. So, a really nice experience.

00;02;01;26 – 00;02;04;03
Dr. Ryan Loy
How long is that flight?

00;02;04;06 – 00;02;18;17
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Too long. I am from Argentina, right? And I always considered going to Argentina a long flight. Well, going to Madagascar is like going to Argentina round trip, just getting there.

00;02;18;19 – 00;02;20;20
Dr. Ryan Loy
Oh, wow. That’s brutal. That’s brutal.

00;02;20;23 – 00;02;23;13
Dr. Hunter Biram
How long were you there for?

00;02;23;16 – 00;02;27;21
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
We were there, ten days., I believe.

00;02;27;23 – 00;02;28;19
Dr. Ryan Loy
Very good.

00;02;28;21 – 00;02;31;04
Dr. Hunter Biram
So. So you were there with some students?

00;02;31;07 – 00;03;02;19
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
I was there with three master students. The idea is to. We are going to do, a comprehensive, producer survey, out of which, we plan to get three theses. So looking at, really, three main topics. One will be the impact of technology adoption, primarily when it comes to, fertilization. The other project will be about, again, what are the main drivers of low productivity?

00;03;02;21 – 00;03;13;02
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
And the third one is really, looking at the role of women empowerment on the food security of the household, looking at rice households. Yeah.

00;03;13;05 – 00;03;17;26
Dr. Hunter Biram
That’s great. Wow. That’s wonderful. That’s wonderful. Well, are you guys ready to get us started here?

00;03;18;01 – 00;03;19;02
Dr. Ryan Loy
I think it’s a perfect segue.

00;03;19;04 – 00;03;35;10
Dr. Hunter Biram
Yeah, I think so. Well, good morning, good morning, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, with your host, Hunter Biram. And today in the studio, we have a, have a very special guest, Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat. Alvaro, how are you doing today?

00;03;35;13 – 00;03;38;09
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
I’m doing great. Thank you. How are you doing?

00;03;38;09 – 00;03;58;22
Dr. Hunter Biram
Man, I’m doing wonderful. For so, for those of you who don’t know, which, if you don’t know Alvaro, I mean, this guy is such a nice guy, such a wonderful guy to work with, he’s in our department. He’s up in Fayetteville and has conducted a lot of wonderful research in agricultural policy. So, looking at domestic policy and even some international trade and a lot of work with rice.

00;03;58;22 – 00;04;16;17
Dr. Hunter Biram
And so that will get us to what we’re going to talk about today, which is global market prospects for U.S. long-grain rice for the upcoming marketing year. So, Alvaro, if you wouldn’t mind, could you go ahead and summarize, summarize an article that you,came out with on Southern Ag Today?

00;04;16;19 – 00;04;51;04
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Yeah, sure. I mean, for those of you, the listeners that follow the rice market. And again, rice being such an important crop in Arkansas, I assume many people follow the rice market. You know how difficult it has been in the last few years when it comes to trying to see where primarily international prices will, will be. So, and, all that driven primarily by India’s decision to export, to ban the export of, non-basmati, long-grain rice.

00;04;51;07 – 00;05;25;13
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
And that decision was taken in 2023, under the fear that India will have a short crop. Well, truth be told, India is just bidding a new production record every year. They have been blessed with incredible weather, expanding the rice acreage and, and so that short crop never came to fruition, but India, never the less, kept the export ban which increased export prices significantly.

00;05;25;16 – 00;06;12;22
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
In October of 2024, finally, after over a year, India decided to actually come back again to the export market. And all that just basically crashed the international prices. They dropped significantly in the last six months. And again, left many people wondering, what will be the bottom, right, of that market? And so, that was kind of the, the, the spirit of the paper was to look at that briefly and, and again, the difficult situation that these prices put multiple rice farmers and rice farmers throughout the Western Hemisphere because, again, we are… we cannot compete, and be profitable with

00;06;12;25 – 00;06;15;09
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
the prices that we have in the market today.

00;06;15;11 – 00;06;33;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
So one of the things that you had mentioned was the India ban and them coming back online in October, and essentially what the world is looking at there was, you know, they limited supply very severely in those prices, those global prices increased during that ban. And as soon as they opened that back up, it kind of flooded that market and drove those prices down.

00;06;33;25 – 00;06;49;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
And one of the things I’ve heard, as far as kind of anecdotally, is the rice market right now, since India opened it back up was that it’s really a quick, quickest race to the bottom as far as global price. For perspective countries. And I’d be curious to get your thoughts on that. Is that really true? Is that kind of what we’re seeing?

00;06;49;24 – 00;07;22;15
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Yeah. So again, just to give you an idea, since October and again, let’s look at like the Thai, Thailand’s long-grain price, which is kind of the, the reference international price, if you will, because Thailand is still a major rice exporter. That price decreased by 29% over the last six months, so it was again, October before October, around $560, $580 per metric ton.

00;07;22;15 – 00;07;49;22
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Now it is at a $400 per metric ton. And the same goes for Vietnam. The same goes for, again, India, which is the main reason for it. So today, we see, it seems like prices have found a floor of $400. But you can imagine, right? Right. $400. Bring bring those prices for meal rice to the U.S.

00;07;49;22 – 00;07;53;19
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
There is no way that anybody can make money, right?

00;07;53;19 – 00;07;54;25
Dr. Ryan Loy
Right. And,

00;07;54;27 – 00;08;24;26
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Again, US prices have been higher than that because again, we enjoy kind of, you know, through trade preferences and through, higher quality, and also through, you know, a long, long-term relationships with our buyers in the Western Hemisphere. We enjoy a significant premium over Asian rice, but still, U.S. prices, U.S. export prices have also decreasing significantly, adjusting to the to the overall situation, right?

00;08;24;28 – 00;08;49;07
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Yes, totally. That that is the case. And to me, what is interesting is, and I don’t know if I highlighted that in the article, but we always talk historically, since I remember, we always talk about India being a residual exporter, meaning the, you know, the main, the main intention of India is to supply the domestic market.

00;08;49;25 – 00;09;25;05
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Rice is the main staple in India. If they don’t have rice, there will be social unrest, right? And so, since 2012, India became the largest rice exporter, surpassing Thailand. Since 2020, India have reached a level of exports that nobody thought it will be possible – over 20 million metric tons a year. And so we, many of us thought, well, and now India is seriously focusing on the export market and then the export won’t happen.

00;09;25;07 – 00;09;54;06
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
So to me, that shows that, regardless of how big exports are, the main goal of India is to feed its own people and they will export if they have the domestic situation under control, which is more worrisome even for the global market, right, because It makes the importing countries, some people that depend on only imports for supplying the demand more exposed to Indian policies.

00;09;54;06 – 00;09;55;01
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Right.

00;09;55;03 – 00;10;06;18
Dr. Hunter Biram
So Alvaro, whenever you talk about, exports being around 20 million metric tons, what does total production look like, in terms of metric tons and India?

00;10;06;20 – 00;10;35;05
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Well, total production… Honestly, it is amazing to see the trend, because I have been doing market projections for many years. Five years ago, if someone told me that India will reach 140 million metric tons, mill basis, I would have said that is impossible. And I’m pretty sure everybody would have said that. And if they say otherwise, I would,

00;10;35;05 – 00;10;51;20
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
I would really, really challenge them. Because honestly, it looked impossible. Well, they did it. And so now this year, India is expected, according to USDA, to reach 147 million metric tons, mill basis.

00;10;51;22 – 00;10;55;14
Dr. Ryan Loy
And by mill basis, you mean after everything’s milled and it’s ready to go, right?

00;10;55;19 – 00;11;21;06
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Exactly. So it’s one way to express things. So, if we assume that paddy rice with mill, 70% mill rice, then we convert everything to a mill basis. So on a paddy basis, they’re about, I think they’re already about 200 million metric tons. So they are surpassing this year, expected to surpass China as the largest rice producer for the first time.

00;11;21;08 – 00;11;57;22
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Wow. China production has been stagnant, India growing. So this year, India may overtake China as the largest rice producer in the world. So, and again, it is hard to think that they will slow down because again, if you look at the trends, they are just pointing up. And so again, prices, I think there is very little hope, at least from where I see it, to see prices in the short term or in the next couple of years to go up.

00;11;57;24 – 00;12;25;29
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Unless again, climate, there is some big change on climate or something. But if things go normally, we should expect prices to, sadly for our farmers, to remain low. So on the demand side, I also have to highlight that is not only India supplying more rice, it’s also some countries seem to be doing better on domestic production and requesting or demanding less imports.

00;12;25;29 – 00;12;46;09
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
And primarily Indonesia is the case. So Indonesia was the largest rice importer last year. This year, they apparently have a great crop. They bought a lot of cheap rice when the price was low, which is very smart, right? So they, they, they have a huge stock. And so now they’re in a good position to wait and see.

00;12;46;12 – 00;12;52;22
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
And so they are pretty much out of the market. And so again supply and demand, the market will find the new equilibrium, right?

00;12;52;22 – 00;12;53;22
Dr. Ryan Loy
Right.

00;12;53;22 – 00;12;55;27
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
At a lower price, there is no other way.

00;12;55;29 – 00;13;27;18
Dr. Ryan Loy
It’s very interesting, and this perspective you’ve given us is really important to, you know, not only the world market for rice, but really, the Arkansas market, right? You know, we rely heavily on exports. And so, you know, this may be a question without an answer, but from this perspective and with the outlook very bleak and, you know, supply so high and other countries that import, you know, not needing as much this year, what can U.S. rice growers really do to keep their competitiveness with these falling global prices and high production cost?

00;13;27;18 – 00;13;32;20
Dr. Ryan Loy
You know, maybe there isn’t an answer now, maybe it’s we wait and see. But I’d be curious to get your thoughts on that.

00;13;32;22 – 00;13;59;16
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Yeah. I mean, definitely the situation is, is complicated. I mean, as you said, we export as a whole, around 40% of what we produce, goes overseas. When it comes to long-grain, which is the main type that we produce in Arkansas, most of that goes to Latin America. So we have some advantages there in terms of, like, trade integration,

00;13;59;16 – 00;14;28;21
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
right? We have USMCA, we have the AfCFTA, we have these agreements that give U.S. rice some protection, relative to other competitors. We have a long tradition. So, again, trade is not only about price, it’s about trust, right? So, we have companies that have traded for decades, and so those relationships will stick, but sooner or later, again, things will adjust,

00;14;28;23 – 00;14;57;00
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
right? And so we have seen that in Haiti, for instance, with Pakistani rice coming heavily into that market. And again, Haiti, so our main market for long-grain milled rice. So we have seen significant increase in of Mercosur rice, again, primarily Brazilian, but also wild rice into Central America, taking some of the market share out of the U.S.

00;14;57;02 – 00;15;23;24
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
So, again, the rice industry, I mean, the U.S. rice industry, they are smart people, right? And they have been doing this for a long time. So I, I won’t give them any advice other than just, you know, the issue of quality, right? I mean, we, we always competed well on quality and there has been some, some issues with quality and relative primarily to Mercosur.

00;15;23;24 – 00;15;51;08
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
rice. So again, to me, the focus on, on quality as a competitiveness component is very important. And I know the industry is well aware and they are doing, they are taking measures to improve the quality and improve the competitiveness that way. But again, it is hard to think that, you know, productivity, the U.S. is already one of the most productive in terms of yields per acre, globally.

00;15;51;08 – 00;16;17;07
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
But again, on the cost side of things, again, it is expensive to produce rice in the U.S. So, definitely looking at ways to lower the cost. And again, that’s easier said than done, I know. But that’s, that’s what will give us some more room to compete. And again, I think again, those are very general views,

00;16;17;07 – 00;16;44;05
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
but, the truth is, the situation is complicated, and I won’t say otherwise, but it’s not the first time that the U.S. is challenged. And through the challenges, they have always come out stronger on the other side. So this won’t be any different. But again, it’s hard when you are, today, establishing a rice crop and looking at the numbers.

00;16;44;07 – 00;16;53;05
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Of course, the farm bill will help, right? I mean, we are looking at prices that will trigger payments under PLC, but again,

00;16;53;08 – 00;16;54;17
Dr. Ryan Loy
No, that’s a great perspective.

00;16;54;18 – 00;16;56;11
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
It will be a hard year, I mean.

00;16;56;18 – 00;17;06;18
Dr. Ryan Loy
Absolutely. No ifs ands or buts about the hard year, right? But that perspective is very helpful. Thank you for giving that. I really appreciate it. Hunter, do you have any more questions?

00;17;06;18 – 00;17;27;14
Dr. Hunter Biram
Yeah I was going to ask about millers, Alvaro, I know that, this article, which we’re actually going to feature this, in our newsletter and, I forgot to mention that Ryan Loy is in the studio with me, so. So, for those who are wondering, who else was tuning in? It would be Ryan, who has also done a lot of great work in rice and trade, but back to the question here,

00;17;27;14 – 00;17;38;24
Dr. Hunter Biram
so, you know, what will be the impact for millers? Because, I mean, if export prices are falling, but farm prices are, you know, stable, what’s going to be the implications for millers?

00;17;38;26 – 00;17;53;17
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
That’s a great point. I think millers, again, I forgot to say another advantage of the U.S. rice industry is that we are willing to export paddy rice.

00;17;53;19 – 00;17;54;25
Dr. Ryan Loy
And that’s non-milled, right?

00;17;54;25 – 00;18;28;09
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
Most Asian countries ban the exportation of paddy rice. And although that is, that can be good for farmers, right. Because ultimately farmers sell paddy rice. That is pretty bad for the milling industry, right? Because that is the main input for the milling industry. And so your point, Hunter, is very well taken because what we have seen is, there has been a correction down on, on the export price for milled rice, but we haven’t seen yet a significant correction on the farm price.

00;18;28;12 – 00;19;00;07
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
That means that that margin is now squeezed and that is where the millers operate, right? And so, again, I think this will put the millers, particularly, in a very tight situation until the farm price adjusts. And again, that will put farmers… So again, there is this supply chain dynamic, right? I hope the industry as a whole takes, again, a supply chain view and approach,

00;19;00;07 – 00;19;18;15
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
right? Instead of, like, an internal war between farmers and millers and traders. I think this is the time to put all the force together to just get through this hard time, share the pain, to share the glories in the future, I guess, right?

00;19;18;20 – 00;19;27;22
Dr. Hunter Biram
Sounds like literally everybody is hurting everybody economically. Definitely a tough time. Alvaro, unless you have any other comments, just wanna say thanks for joining us today.

00;19;27;24 – 00;19;38;08
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
No, my comment is thank you for inviting me. Thank you for your good, good work. I listen to this every Monday. So, yeah, thank you guys. Any time.

00;19;38;12 – 00;19;39;28
Dr. Ryan Loy
Thank you. Alvaro. Really appreciate.

00;19;39;28 – 00;19;43;10
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
And I can talk about rice. That’s all I can talk about, apparently, so.

00;19;43;12 – 00;19;43;24
Dr. Ryan Loy
Well, it’s a perfect…

00;19;43;26 – 00;19;45;20
Dr. Hunter Biram
very important topic.

00;19;45;22 – 00;19;48;18
Dr. Alvaro Durand-Morat
I don’t know if the audience watches soccer, but, anyway.

00;19;48;21 – 00;19;49;24
Dr. Ryan Loy
We could talk about that, too.

00;19;49;24 – 00;19;53;01
Dr. Hunter Biram
There may be a few out there. You know, we could just start our own podcast.

00;19;53;04 – 00;19;55;09
Dr. Ryan Loy
Yeah, that’s right, I like that. I like that a lot.

00;19;55;09 – 00;20;05;05
Dr. Hunter Biram
Well, with that, thank you again, Alvaro and Ryan for joining us today. And y’all stay tuned for the market report. Thank you.

00;20;05;08 – 00;20;28;03
Dr. Hunter Biram
Alright, folks, back with your market report. September 2025 corn $4.32 per bushel. Down from, down $0.01 for a month ago, which is $4.33 and down $0.26 from a year ago., $4.58. September 2025 rice futures at $13.78 per 100 weight. That’s down $0.78 from a month ago, and down almost $2 from a year ago. November 2025

00;20;28;03 – 00;20;52;10
Dr. Hunter Biram
soybeans looking at $10.33 per bushel. That’s going to be up $0.11 from a month ago. And down, about $1.30 from a year ago. December 2025 cotton looking at about $0.68 per pound. That’s going to be down, from a month ago, which was at $0.70 per pound and down from $0.74 per pound from a year ago. July 2025

00;20;52;10 – 00;21;17;19
Dr. Hunter Biram
wheat looking at $4.56 per bushel. That’s going to be, up $0.15 from a month ago. And that is going to be down about a $1.14 from a year ago. The U.S. weekly average peanuts looking at about $490 per ton. That’s going to be down $18 per ton from a month ago and down $56 per ton from a year ago.

00;21;17;21 – 00;21;43;03
Dr. Hunter Biram
Arkansas highway diesel looking at about $3.17 per gallon. That’s going to be down about $0.04 per gallon from a month ago, and down $0.33 per gallon from a year ago. Arkansas farm diesel looking at $2.34, per gallon. That’s going to be up $0.08 per gallon from a month ago. And it’s going to be, down about $0.27 per gallon from a year ago.

00;21;43;05 – 00;22;06;19
Dr. Hunter Biram
Looking at your fertilizer now, these are going to be reported from the Bloomberg Green Markets Mid-South region pricing. So, for the week ending May 30th, urea, $560 per ton, that’s going to be about the same as it was a month ago, and up about $200 per ton from a year ago. UAN $410 per ton.

00;22;06;19 – 00;22;33;03
Dr. Hunter Biram
That’s going to be up about, 32 or $42, per ton from a month ago. And, up about 130-ish, dollars per ton from a year ago. DAP, $730 per ton, that’s going to be at $42 per ton from a month ago, and that’s going to be, up $77 per ton from a year ago.

00;22;33;05 – 00;22;53;13
Dr. Hunter Biram
Triple super phosphate, looking at $590 per ton, versus $545 per ton, so that’s going to be at $55 per ton from a month ago, and it’s going to be up $80 a ton from a year ago. And then lastly, potash looking at $368 per ton, which is up $3 per ton from a month ago and up $8 per ton from a year ago.

00;22;53;20 – 00;23;14;21
Dr. Hunter Biram
So it’s looking like across the board, fertilizer prices are going to be up, from a month ago and certainly from a year ago. Looking at your Mississippi River level at Memphis, current reading is about 15.35ft. A month ago we were about 18.4ft., so it’s fallen some, and we are going to be down, from a year ago, which was at 21.65ft.

00;23;14;23 – 00;23;29;02
Dr. Hunter Biram
So, with that, thank you for tuning in today. And with that, I’m signing off. Thanks. Bye.