Fryar Center Podcast

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the launch of the National Cotton Profit & Loss Tool, a free, web-based budgeting and planning resource designed to help cotton producers evaluate profitability, breakeven points, and financial risk. Ryan outlines how the tool pairs county-level yield expectations with customizable enterprise budgets, enabling producers to run detailed what-if scenarios and build cost structures that reflect their own operations. The episode also highlights how the tool can support clearer financial planning, strengthen conversations with agricultural lenders, and invites producer feedback as the tool continues to evolve.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles discuss the December 2025 WASDE report, noting the most significant price reductions in rice and cotton markets. Long-grain rice prices declined 9%, while cotton fell to around $0.60 per pound, driven by sluggish export demand, higher yields, and rising ending stocks. The episode also covers corn and soybean markets, where corn exports were revised upward and ending stocks lowered, though farm price projections for both crops remained unchanged. Hunter and Scott also review the newly announced Farm Bill Assistance (FBA) Program, expected to allocate up to $11 billion to row-crop producers.

In this episode, we sit down with U.S. Senator John Boozman to discuss the major federal policy issues shaping American agriculture. We cover how Congress has approached farm policy this year, including reconciliation packages, appropriations work, and efforts to advance USDA nominees. Senator Boozman also shares insight on the state of farm economic assistance, the rollout of recent disaster and commodity support programs, and how trade and new markets fit into long-term farm profitability.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over the next few months.

Arkansas’s 2025 net farm income was revised down by $850 million, and in this episode Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy break down what’s driving the shift. Wet spring conditions cut rice and soybean acres, delayed and smaller disaster payments pulled income even lower, and only modest livestock gains helped offset the decline. They also look ahead to 2026, where most crop margins remain negative, but updated safety-net provisions offer a bit more stability for soybeans, corn, and peanuts.

With harvest wrapping up across much of the Midsouth, today’s episode looks at how pre-harvest marketing strategies can guide decision-making after the crop is in the bin. Dr. Ryan Loy is joined by Dr. Andrew McKenzie and Mr. Scott Stiles to discuss how to adapt pre-harvest marketing plans for the post-harvest window, factoring in storage costs, breakevens, and recent export-driven price moves in soybeans.

Join us for an in-depth discussion between Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy on prevented planting (PP) decisions in Arkansas rice production. Using simulated 2025 yield and price outcomes, they evaluate when PP could be financially preferable to planting. The episode also addresses second-crop soybean considerations and how the timing and scale of pre-plant costs can determine whether PP is a strategic choice or a costly one.

For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckwith sit down together to unpack what’s driving the financial stress on Arkansas farms.

They discuss the key takeaways from the “Farm Gate Economics: Surviving the Cost-Price Squeeze” meeting, including fertilizer prices that refuse to drop and record global grain supplies. The conversation also covers cost-management tips for producers heading into 2026.

Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how rainfall trends and interval selection shape profitability. They discuss five interval-selection strategies—from Near Peak Forage Months to Historical Variation—and why these two outperform profit-max and basis-risk methods across most scenarios. With the December 1 enrollment deadline approaching, the episode offers practical guidance for forage and livestock producers looking to make PRF a true safety net, not a gamble.

Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice competitiveness. They discuss how India’s lifted export ban, record global harvests, and shifting import policies in key markets like the Philippines have driven prices down nearly 30% from last year. They also examine the quality challenges facing U.S. rice in contrast to Mercosur competitors, the political motivations behind trade bans, and what opportunities remain for Arkansas producers amid high beginning stocks and tightening margins.
Grab your coffee and join us for a timely and thought-provoking conversation!

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how those updates shift risk management across regions, and the modeling behind county-level payment estimates. They also unpack what the ongoing government shutdown could mean for the timing of program payments and farm operations this fall, and take a look ahead at policy tradeoffs and payment limits likely to shape the next farm bill debate.

The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts to rising farm financial stress, drawing lessons from the 1980s crisis and outlining red flag warning signs and resources available to support farm families today.

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram recap USDA’s Sept. 12 reports on this week’s episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets. USDA found more corn acres while trimming yield, and futures firmed after early field reports of disease in the western Corn Belt and late-season dryness in the east. Soybeans lean toward record crush while exports lag amid South American competition and tariffs. Long-grain rice sees a downward revision in price, and cotton stays rangebound with Brazil’s growing export share in focus.

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to talk margin insurance. They break down Margin Protection and the Margin Coverage Option, how each fits with other crop insurance plans, and the signup windows. Hunter also walks through the Margin Protection Payment Estimator tool to show how Arkansas producers can use it to check breakevens and potential payments for the 2026 crop year.

Hunter and Ryan are back with part two of our Prevented Planting (PP) series. They look at 30 years of Arkansas trends—how PP losses surged after 2011 and have topped production losses since 2019 (often outpacing premiums) in addition to which crops drive the payouts. Rice and corn lead the pack, 2019 stands out as a peak year, and preliminary 2025 FSA data points to high PP acreage led by rice, with final tallies still coming in. They close the episode with takeaways for risk management as we head into next season.

For the fourth year in a row, Mississippi River levels are dropping to severe lows during harvest. Join Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy as they discuss how these conditions are impacting barge freight rates, soybean basis, and local cash bids. They break down what it all means for grain marketing in the Midsouth as harvest approaches.

Hunter Biram is joined by Ryan Loy to explore Chapter 12 bankruptcy trends across the U.S. and in Arkansas. They discuss what rising filings reveal about farm financial stress, how margins are tightening due to rising costs, and why this matters for producers and rural communities.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles break down USDA’s Aug. 12 forecasts. Corn is on track for record yields and production, rebuilding U.S. supplies. Soybeans pair record yield potential with fewer harvested acres, keeping new-crop supplies relatively tight. Long-grain rice sees higher beginning stocks and a modest production bump largely offset by stronger demand. Cotton acreage is reduced; even with better yields, production declines and ending stocks tighten. Grains look well supplied, while soybeans, rice, and cotton trend tighter amid lingering demand uncertainty.

Dr. Ryan Loy unpacks the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and what it means for farm borrowing costs. We also break down rising inflation pressures, the looming August 7 tariff deadline, and how trade tensions could impact input prices and export markets. Tune in for practical insights on navigating agriculture’s financial challenges in today’s uncertain economy.

In this episode, Eunchun Park and Ryan Loy explore whether USDA’s Daily Large Export Sales Reports (DLESR) influence commodity futures markets. Unlike regularly scheduled USDA reports like WASDE, DLESRs are unscheduled and announce significant export transactions—making them potentially impactful market events. Park discusses findings from intraday futures data showing how markets may react to these unexpected announcements, especially given the unique two-day lag between a sale and its public release. The episode also contrasts DLESRs with weekly export reports, which tend to have little market impact due to their predictability and delayed information. Tune in for a deeper dive into how timing and surprise affect market movements and price discovery.

In this episode of Morning Coffee and Ag Markets, Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy explore Prevented Planting coverage—the indemnity within Yield and Revenue Protection policies that compensate producers when extreme events, like April’s floods, prevent planting. They explain RMA’s crop-specific base coverage factors (plus an optional 5% buy-up), walk through cost breakdowns and payment calculations, and outline rules for second-crop planting and APH yield adjustments. Join us next week for part two, where we’ll examine historical PP loss trends across Arkansas.

In this episode, Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram unpack USDA’s July WASDE, which largely met expectations as favorable weather and robust yields continue to underpin ample supplies. Soybean acreage cuts trimmed production slightly, but stronger crush demand held stocks steady and nudged forecast prices lower; long-grain rice saw acreage-driven production cuts offset by demand revisions that lifted ending stocks; corn stocks eased on old-crop export gains and residual adjustments; and cotton output rose on expanded acreage despite a modest yield dip. Overall, heavy stocks across the board keep downward pressure on price outlooks as we look ahead to the August 12 report.

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Will Maples break down recent federal policy updates affecting U.S. agriculture. The newly passed “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) strengthens the farm safety net with major changes to PLC, ARC, and crop insurance—including higher reference prices, expanded SCO eligibility, and increased premium subsidies. They also discuss the “Skinny” Farm Bill’s potential follow-up measures and USDA’s rollout of SDRP disaster payments for producers impacted by 2023–24 natural disasters.

In this episode, Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles recap one of the quietest June 30th USDA reports in recent memory. With little market reaction, they dig into what the numbers mean for corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice heading into the July WASDE. Corn and soybean acres came in slightly under expectations, while cotton saw a surprise jump and rice acres declined more than forecast. The team breaks down how these shifts may influence production, stocks, and pricing in the months ahead—and why weather will play a critical role in shaping markets through mid-summer.

In this episode, Ryan Loy and Scott Stiles break down the rise in Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies and why Arkansas now accounts for over a quarter of filings in the 8th Circuit. They explore what this trend reveals about farm financial stress, how rising input costs and stubbornly low margins are squeezing operations, and why the disparity between prices received and prices paid continues to threaten farm solvency. From national policy shifts to local realities, tune in to understand the economic warning signs facing family farms across the South.